0xb6E5436B2AfDc1a47826B01A3F452381912F9551-1767893912164
0xec844734c25ed66fcab4de338d88d9d1e85fdfb7
- Realised P&L
- $-43.93
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $26.49
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the December meeting? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.879 | $8.68 | +$0.68 |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.124 | 0.163 | $5.24 | +$1.24 |
| Will the Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.360 | $5.02 | −$0.98 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.715 | $4.55 | +$0.41 |
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? · No | 0.360 | 0.215 | $2.99 | −$2.01 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$58.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.35at 0.380Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?
- +$2.27at 0.691Fed rate hike in 2026?
- +$1.95at 0.691Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.91% in September?
- +$1.75at 0.806Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?
- +$1.49at 0.772Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 08:01 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.6499999764 | $4.14 |
| 10-07 07:59 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1239999981 | $4.00 |
| 10-07 07:58 | Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the December meeting? | BUY | 0.809999998 | $8.00 |
| 09-16 08:53 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $7.25 |
| 09-14 12:26 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.97% in September? | BUY | 0.86 | $6.29 |
| 09-10 12:56 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.91% in September? | BUY | 0.6799999937 | $4.30 |
| 09-10 12:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.37 | $4.30 |
| 08-04 07:37 | Will the Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? | BUY | 0.4299999706 | $6.00 |
| 08-04 07:33 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4299999871 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 07:32 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999728 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 07:30 | Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | BUY | 0.359999977 | $5.00 |
| 07-29 11:42 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31? | BUY | 0.3709999794 | $5.00 |
| 07-29 11:35 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7629999657 | $5.00 |
| 06-12 11:00 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0449999993 | $58.09 |