Gn00500873
0xec6cdba0c85dd354a19918e949395a362f60be95
- Realised P&L
- $19.47
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $75.11
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.460 | 1.000 | $32.61 | +$17.61 |
| Will 01.xyz reach $5B in total volume by March 31, 2026? · No | 0.505 | 1.000 | $19.80 | +$9.80 |
| Major CEX insolvent in 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.038 | $16.01 | −$33.90 |
| EU debt downgrade before 2027? · Yes | 0.434 | 0.145 | $6.69 | −$13.31 |
| Ethereum flipped in 2026? · No | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? · No | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Minneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? · Yes | 0.213 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.82at 0.240US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$6.03at 0.430Trump approval Up or Down this week?
- +$4.93at 0.670Will USD reach 1.5M Iranian rials by January 31?
- +$0.31at 0.980Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?
- +$0.22at 0.890Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-13 10:25 | Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | SELL | 0.33 | $4.28 |
| 03-13 10:23 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.006 | $2.46 |
| 02-08 19:06 | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $20.22 |
| 02-08 19:05 | Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28? | SELL | 0.9 | $20.22 |
| 02-08 19:03 | Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999968 | $29.69 |
| 02-08 18:58 | Ethereum flipped in 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999833 | $10.00 |
| 02-08 18:49 | Will 01.xyz reach $5B in total volume by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5049654775 | $10.00 |
| 01-28 18:56 | Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28? | BUY | 0.8899999996 | $20.00 |
| 01-28 18:30 | Minneapolis Border Patrol Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? | BUY | 0.2135922199 | $10.00 |
| 01-25 07:20 | Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $15.00 |
| 01-16 08:14 | Trump approval Up or Down this week? | SELL | 0.7 | $7.70 |
| 01-15 21:56 | Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 01-15 17:19 | Will USD reach 1.5M Iranian rials by January 31? | BUY | 0.6699999839 | $10.00 |
| 01-11 04:30 | Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | BUY | 0.7699999877 | $10.00 |
| 01-11 04:12 | EU debt downgrade before 2027? | BUY | 0.4336283155 | $20.00 |