PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

nowayni

0xec41bea5cba6366ec364ded806e24ee1a3e91134

Realised P&L
$3.8k
Volume
$745.8k
Markets traded
2,263
Open portfolio
$4.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded2,263
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration15.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration25.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes0.6810.974$1.0k+$311.43
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes0.7320.987$983.05+$253.54
Will Chen Yu-jen win the next Kinmen County Magistrate election? · Yes0.9550.960$829.37+$3.49
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9050.981$686.36+$52.50
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? · No0.8000.975$114.02+$20.44
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes0.5100.951$95.05+$44.05
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes0.5970.947$94.65+$34.98
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? · No0.8300.910$91.00+$8.00
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? · Yes0.6900.845$84.50+$15.50
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? · No0.6800.700$35.00+$1.00
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026? · No0.8600.965$4.83+$0.53
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on November 2? · Yes0.5000.001$0.10−$49.90
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sinners (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage · Sinners0.3820.000$0.00−$362.99
Magic vs. Cavaliers · Magic0.0030.000$0.00−$0.60
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner · Inner Circle0.2500.000$0.00−$50.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 16:02Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 11°C on November 2?SELL0.998$99.80
10-31 13:25Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PARI Universe PlayoffsBUY0.92$184.00
10-30 21:38LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS - Game 2 WinnerBUY0.89$8.90
10-30 21:09LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS - Game 2 WinnerBUY0.7$14.00
10-29 22:43Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on October 30?SELL0.999$99.90
10-29 21:51Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?SELL0.992$248.00
10-29 21:50Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?SELL0.993$248.25
10-29 21:50Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?SELL0.99202502$496.01
10-29 21:28Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?SELL0.98964498$494.82
10-29 19:44Dota 2: OG vs GamerLegion - Game 1 WinnerSELL0.76$3.80
10-28 19:52Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe PlayoffsBUY0.34$3.40
10-28 18:26Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 2 WinnerBUY0.27$2.70
10-28 17:38Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?SELL0.14$14.00
10-28 16:13Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Astra Invicta (BO3) - PARI Universe PlayoffsSELL0.69$17.25
10-28 15:18Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Astra Invicta - Game 2 WinnerBUY0.75$15.00