0xec3913f447d9b44a3f456c3c236aefda3d7e7976
- Realised P&L
- $18.50
- Volume
- $278.39
- Markets traded
- 77
- Open portfolio
- $12.33
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded77
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yes | 0.350 | 1.000 | $2.86 | +$1.86 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.560 | 0.895 | $1.60 | +$0.60 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.885 | $1.47 | +$0.47 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $177 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.630 | $1.40 | +$0.40 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $100 Week of September 14 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.805 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.770 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.260 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.745 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.425 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.46at 0.217Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$3.88at 0.340US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$3.51at 0.227WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on September 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 17:13 | Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 09:11 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 23:06 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 15:05 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $177 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 07:05 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 23:03 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $100 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 14:27 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 05:30 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 20:54 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 07:57 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 19:56 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 10:49 | Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 10:47 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 11? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 01:35 | Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10–$2.20 in August? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 17:34 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |