0xec200dcd4c37fb90a4c310025ded2d0cecb51858
- Realised P&L
- $-20.24
- Volume
- $334.12
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $15.13
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.905 | $6.25 | +$0.93 |
| Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.330 | $4.88 | −$0.44 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.550 | 0.295 | $2.85 | −$2.47 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.800 | 0.145 | $0.88 | −$3.98 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.085 | $0.26 | −$0.85 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.69at 0.500Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $150 Week of July 20 2026?
- +$9.30at 0.520Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?
- +$7.66at 0.410Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$6.86at 0.300Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $340 Week of July 27 2026?
- +$4.57at 0.538Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 14:20 | Will Trump say "TrumpRX" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.6099999885 | $5.32 |
| 08-05 06:19 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.7799999971 | $5.32 |
| 08-04 22:18 | Will Trump say "No No No" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.4099999784 | $5.32 |
| 08-04 14:18 | Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.3599999756 | $5.32 |
| 08-04 06:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.7699999233 | $5.32 |
| 08-03 10:14 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999969 | $5.32 |
| 08-03 02:14 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999969 | $5.32 |
| 08-02 17:59 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099999784 | $5.32 |
| 08-02 17:18 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.5379999988 | $5.32 |
| 08-02 07:50 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999628 | $5.32 |
| 08-01 23:19 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.3599998314 | $1.11 |
| 08-01 15:11 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699999233 | $5.32 |
| 08-01 04:41 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.10 |
| 07-31 20:40 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.10 |
| 07-31 12:39 | Will the US Trade Deficit be between $70 billion and $80 billion in June 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $1.80 |