xoxy
0xec1c524c791266d7ab2fea963c60352d02df5452
- Realised P&L
- $-2.8k
- Volume
- $443.0k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $106.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? · Yes | 0.143 | 0.125 | $106.93 | −$15.76 |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$208.46at 0.016Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
- +$70.58at 0.051Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31?
- +$61.34at 0.080Will Ethereum dip to $3600 in September?
- +$57.50at 0.021Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
- +$43.04at 0.024Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-07 20:25 | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | SELL | 0.0513899265 | $186.25 |
| 04-30 21:54 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | SELL | 0.003 | $7.50 |
| 04-30 21:53 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.003 | $7.50 |
| 04-29 05:12 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $5.00 |
| 04-13 18:12 | Will Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt) (MKKP) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.001 | $1.32 |
| 04-13 18:10 | Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.001 | $3.15 |
| 04-10 08:45 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.29 | $51.33 |
| 03-21 07:36 | Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.29 | $7.31 |
| 01-03 17:09 | Will Donald Trump say "dictator" at least three times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.99 |
| 01-03 17:09 | Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.55 |
| 11-26 17:12 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | SELL | 0.01 | $3.50 |
| 11-26 17:11 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.011 | $3.85 |
| 11-24 10:42 | Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bp cut" favored on Monday? | SELL | 0.0183816145 | $5.51 |
| 11-23 21:50 | Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bp cut" favored on Monday? | SELL | 0.033 | $5.94 |
| 10-28 15:39 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? | SELL | 0.06 | $18.00 |