Lucas221
0xebed2bb89ba2826df60e0b088cdd048924b07d9c
- Realised P&L
- $1.1k
- Volume
- $88.6k
- Markets traded
- 569
- Open portfolio
- $0.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded569
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$636.89at 0.076Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 12?
- +$339.01at 0.323Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 24?
- +$238.83at 0.177Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 5?
- +$232.54at 0.085Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21?
- +$172.92at 0.387Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 06:47 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.989 | $0.31 |
| 09-28 02:39 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.3145160406 | $11.47 |
| 09-28 02:20 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.03 | $2.79 |
| 09-27 18:17 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.4059353333 | $60.89 |
| 09-27 18:04 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.0798886605 | $9.33 |
| 09-27 15:17 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 27? | SELL | 0.98 | $65.56 |
| 09-27 14:49 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.7971428571 | $22.32 |
| 09-27 14:45 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.77 | $10.70 |
| 09-27 14:44 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.81 | $20.25 |
| 09-27 14:30 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.93 | $84.46 |
| 09-27 14:17 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.35 | $35.00 |
| 09-27 01:47 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 27? | SELL | 0.0052830189 | $0.56 |
| 09-27 01:46 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on September 27? | SELL | 0.3217583963 | $18.30 |
| 09-27 01:46 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 27? | SELL | 0.3828246014 | $26.89 |
| 09-26 19:55 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.04 | $4.24 |