LongTry
0xebdbdcd227fe09308f41ed3745e2bb6fc4ad5ac4
- Realised P&L
- $-8.2k
- Volume
- $368.4k
- Markets traded
- 5,152
- Open portfolio
- $20.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded5,152
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration24.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 29? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.515 | $10.17 | −$0.69 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on September 28? · No | 0.800 | 0.995 | $5.28 | +$1.03 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 28? · No | 0.970 | 0.985 | $5.03 | +$0.08 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on September 28? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.001 | $0.11 | −$0.89 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 28? · Yes | 0.563 | 0.004 | $0.05 | −$7.95 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 28? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.001 | $0.03 | −$0.97 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on September 28? · No | 0.960 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$9.99 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on September 26? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$82.24at 0.113Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 9?
- +$80.52at 0.762Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on September 20?
- +$41.56at 0.383Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 10?
- +$35.56at 0.394Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 9?
- +$35.13at 0.714Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on September 20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 13:43 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.45 | $0.16 |
| 09-28 13:22 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on September 28? | SELL | 0.47 | $3.41 |
| 09-28 13:22 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on September 28? | SELL | 0.47 | $3.41 |
| 09-28 13:09 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.45 | $3.60 |
| 09-28 12:55 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.42 | $4.16 |
| 09-28 12:55 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.42 | $4.16 |
| 09-28 12:52 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on September 28? | SELL | 0.4473448276 | $6.49 |
| 09-28 12:24 | Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.9699999588 | $4.95 |
| 09-28 12:11 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on September 29? | SELL | 0.45 | $1.14 |
| 09-28 12:06 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on September 28? | SELL | 0.55 | $26.04 |
| 09-28 12:06 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on September 28? | SELL | 0.5528749472 | $26.17 |
| 09-28 11:16 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on September 28? | SELL | 0.6 | $0.30 |
| 09-28 11:07 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.25 |
| 09-28 10:54 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.3128885038 | $10.83 |
| 09-28 10:53 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.3114442519 | $10.78 |