polIRL
0xebca448aa8de10836e0b70b29fbd6de7ce3dda8b
- Realised P&L
- $509.76
- Volume
- $12.3k
- Markets traded
- 293
- Open portfolio
- $998.58
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded293
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$71.58at 0.923Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by the void?
- +$33.44at 0.164Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$30.06at 0.745World Series of Darts: Gian van Veen vs Jonny Clayton
- +$26.08at 0.736Will Lacy and Marlon have between 4 and 5 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?
- +$21.72at 0.719Will Borussia Dortmund qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 21:13 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.61 | $91.50 |
| 09-17 15:45 | Will Bayern Munich be relegated from the 2026-27 Bundesliga? | BUY | 0.956 | $18.76 |
| 09-17 15:37 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner | BUY | 0.49 | $2.45 |
| 09-15 09:37 | Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers | BUY | 0.52 | $5.20 |
| 09-14 21:39 | Will Borussia Mönchengladbach be relegated from the 2026-27 Bundesliga? | BUY | 0.76 | $30.40 |
| 09-14 10:53 | Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.21 | $4.20 |
| 09-14 10:53 | Will AfD win less than 32% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.899 | $8.91 |
| 09-13 09:53 | Will AfD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | BUY | 0.88 | $44.00 |
| 09-12 20:35 | Will SC Paderborn be relegated from the 2026-27 Bundesliga? | SELL | 0.59 | $11.80 |
| 09-12 09:24 | Will Hyperliquid reach $120 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $10.99 |
| 09-10 17:48 | Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.129 | $2.81 |
| 09-10 17:33 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%? | BUY | 0.85 | $34.00 |
| 09-10 17:30 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%? | BUY | 0.64 | $12.80 |
| 09-10 11:09 | Will FW be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | BUY | 0.978 | $20.54 |
| 09-10 11:09 | Will FW be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | BUY | 0.977 | $14.65 |