h1ggsb0s0n
0xeb94664ee23b8293574392d0aed2948b1af9f630
- Realised P&L
- $433.40
- Volume
- $9.6k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $644.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.905 | $271.48 | +$16.50 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? · No | 0.910 | 0.925 | $185.00 | +$3.00 |
| Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by October 31? · No | 0.950 | 0.980 | $97.95 | +$2.95 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.905 | $90.50 | +$5.50 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$188.00at 0.400Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$55.22at 0.940Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$34.50at 0.830China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
- +$28.90at 0.967Xi Jinping out before October?
- +$27.80at 0.820Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 03:10 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.89 | $89.00 |
| 04-21 02:50 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.92 | $92.00 |
| 03-19 03:13 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $46.00 |
| 01-31 16:36 | Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? | BUY | 0.45 | $45.00 |
| 01-30 06:11 | US government shutdown Saturday? | SELL | 0.33 | $46.20 |
| 01-26 04:53 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.24 | $33.60 |
| 01-08 12:32 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08? | BUY | 0.84 | $84.00 |
| 12-29 05:13 | NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $15.84 |
| 08-05 10:31 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.65 |