PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

staflos

0xeb7acdfb1d4b0eaefa7a336a6b4ee6b47242c291

Realised P&L
$1.4k
Volume
$106.6k
Markets traded
74
Open portfolio
$3.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded74
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration51.5% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration76.7% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? · Yes0.5680.735$2.8k+$637.25
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.6900.765$332.61+$32.61
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.6800.725$319.85+$19.85
Viktor Orbán arrested by...? · Yes0.2540.127$109.23−$110.20
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes0.4900.505$51.55+$1.53
Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? · Yes0.4300.525$37.04+$6.70

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 21:26Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.49$50.02
11-01 21:24Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?BUY0.75$41.66
11-01 21:23Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?BUY0.74$22.20
11-01 21:23Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?BUY0.74$21.23
10-31 20:30Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?BUY0.75$22.50
10-31 20:30Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?BUY0.75$52.01
10-29 05:46Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.6899999995$300.00
10-29 05:45Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.6799999994$300.00
10-29 05:44Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?SELL0.996$885.44
10-27 21:28Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?BUY0.8499999991$92.29
10-27 21:27Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?SELL0.15$92.30
10-27 21:27Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?BUY0.85$2.2k
10-27 17:02Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?BUY0.74$185.25
10-27 17:01Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?SELL0.72$185.25
10-27 15:58Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?BUY0.77$281.03