staflos
0xeb7acdfb1d4b0eaefa7a336a6b4ee6b47242c291
- Realised P&L
- $1.4k
- Volume
- $106.6k
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $3.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? · Yes | 0.568 | 0.735 | $2.8k | +$637.25 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.765 | $332.61 | +$32.61 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.725 | $319.85 | +$19.85 |
| Viktor Orbán arrested by...? · Yes | 0.254 | 0.127 | $109.23 | −$110.20 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.505 | $51.55 | +$1.53 |
| Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.525 | $37.04 | +$6.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.3kat 0.421Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?
- +$897.32at 0.831Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?
- +$511.65at 0.770Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$505.34at 0.775Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$399.79at 0.850Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 21:26 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.49 | $50.02 |
| 11-01 21:24 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.75 | $41.66 |
| 11-01 21:23 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.74 | $22.20 |
| 11-01 21:23 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.74 | $21.23 |
| 10-31 20:30 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.75 | $22.50 |
| 10-31 20:30 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.75 | $52.01 |
| 10-29 05:46 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999995 | $300.00 |
| 10-29 05:45 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.6799999994 | $300.00 |
| 10-29 05:44 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.996 | $885.44 |
| 10-27 21:28 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.8499999991 | $92.29 |
| 10-27 21:27 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.15 | $92.30 |
| 10-27 21:27 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.85 | $2.2k |
| 10-27 17:02 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.74 | $185.25 |
| 10-27 17:01 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | SELL | 0.72 | $185.25 |
| 10-27 15:58 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.77 | $281.03 |