ni4on
0xeb5e308c36502285524da16c320f717476ffaf8d
- Realised P&L
- $-162.13
- Volume
- $24.3k
- Markets traded
- 434
- Open portfolio
- $38.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded434
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$202.56at 0.203Will Trump say "Knucklehead" this week?
- +$171.05at 0.225Will Trump say "Chokepoint" or "Choke Point" during the crypto bill signing ceremony on July 18?
- +$117.74at 0.600Will Trump say "October 7th" during address to UN General Assembly on September 23?
- +$113.99at 0.597Will a candidate say "Nursing home" during NYC Democratic Primary Debate on June 4?
- +$72.02at 0.631Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Fox & Friends appearance on September 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 19:44 | Will Trump say "Transgender" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Kansas? | BUY | 0.27 | $27.00 |
| 10-18 19:30 | Will Trump say "Fentanyl" or "Deport" or "Deported" during his Midterm Rally in Kansas? | BUY | 0.32 | $16.64 |
| 10-08 18:30 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Science Summit remarks? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.60 |
| 10-08 17:49 | Will Trump say "Million", "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during his Science Summit remarks? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.50 |
| 10-08 17:31 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Science Summit remarks? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.50 |
| 10-07 19:43 | Will Trump say "Rigged Election" during his Midterm Rally in Texas? | BUY | 0.27 | $1.62 |
| 10-07 18:16 | Will Trump say "Shut Up" during his Midterm Rally in Texas? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.20 |
| 10-07 18:11 | Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during his Midterm Rally in Texas? | BUY | 0.44 | $3.96 |
| 02-13 19:32 | Will Bernie Sanders say "One Percent" or "One Percenter" 3+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally? | BUY | 0.8099999741 | $5.00 |
| 02-13 19:30 | Will Bernie Sanders say "Percent" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally? | BUY | 0.34 | $3.40 |
| 02-13 19:30 | Will Bernie Sanders say "Epstein" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally? | BUY | 0.26 | $5.20 |
| 02-13 19:13 | Will Trump say "World War II" at Fort Bragg on Friday? | SELL | 0.999 | $13.63 |
| 02-13 19:10 | Will Trump say "Discombobulating" or "Discombobulated" this week? (February 15) | BUY | 0.2299999692 | $5.00 |
| 02-13 19:06 | Will Trump say "Golden Dome" this week? (February 15) | SELL | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 02-13 07:35 | Will Trump say "World War II" at Fort Bragg on Friday? | BUY | 0.6963350636 | $9.50 |