0xeb519bbaa688411c5e25784ad71386fed220c179
- Realised P&L
- $-113.06
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $32.69
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.029 | $16.49 | −$33.25 |
| Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.032 | $16.20 | −$29.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.68at 0.687Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
- +$11.16at 0.767Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
- +$-10.44at 0.110Will Trump visit China by June 30?
- +$-15.42at 0.230Will Trump visit China by May 15?
- +$-36.27at 0.639Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-07 13:15 | Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999983 | $45.57 |
| 05-07 13:15 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0889999984 | $49.74 |
| 05-05 07:09 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999951 | $35.74 |
| 05-05 07:08 | Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.7599999967 | $36.44 |
| 04-19 13:47 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 19? | SELL | 0.0047723955 | $0.86 |
| 04-19 11:31 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 19? | BUY | 0.1263298912 | $21.80 |
| 04-19 11:28 | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY | 0.2299999894 | $15.42 |
| 04-19 11:28 | Will Trump visit China by June 30? | BUY | 0.1099999917 | $10.44 |
| 04-19 11:25 | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | BUY | 0.6867955056 | $49.74 |