0xeb2a2a5ca51ade8096cb81c9a6b277fc7acff8fa
- Realised P&L
- $-18.14
- Volume
- $217.31
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $65.89
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration77.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rob Howard win the 2026 Richmond mayoral election? · Yes | 0.583 | 0.519 | $29.62 | −$3.61 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? · Yes | 0.950 | 1.000 | $15.79 | +$0.79 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.860 | 1.000 | $10.47 | +$1.47 |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? · Yes | 0.998 | 1.000 | $10.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.94at 0.715Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
- +$1.67at 0.900Will 'Arc Raiders' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?
- +$1.17at 0.939Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$0.13at 0.986Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 23:32 | Will Rob Howard win the 2026 Richmond mayoral election? | BUY | 0.6429999741 | $6.29 |
| 09-16 23:31 | Will Rob Howard win the 2026 Richmond mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5703779635 | $26.94 |
| 01-01 04:56 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.95 | $15.00 |
| 01-01 04:55 | Will 'Arc Raiders' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? | BUY | 0.9 | $15.00 |
| 01-01 04:54 | Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? | BUY | 0.6799999937 | $30.00 |
| 01-01 00:01 | Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | BUY | 0.7154497143 | $25.00 |
| 12-31 23:57 | Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.00 |
| 12-28 08:24 | Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.9859999989 | $9.00 |
| 12-28 08:23 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.859999914 | $9.00 |
| 12-20 21:37 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.9389999972 | $18.00 |