Vesperalight
0xeb018988488a428b32a938a40c0f3b98403ed6aa
- Realised P&L
- $-6.8k
- Volume
- $45.9k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $19.22
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-14.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)95.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.630 | 0.470 | $11.20 | −$3.80 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in September? · No | 0.640 | 0.855 | $8.02 | +$2.02 |
| Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 15? · No | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Lakers vs. Bulls: O/U 234.5 · Under | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.3k |
| Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 · Over | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$79.00 |
| Spread: Lakers (-1.5) · Bulls | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.8k |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 · Over | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 · Over | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5) · Timberwolves | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.9k |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 · Over | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.0kat 0.500Raptors vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5
- +$3.3kat 0.440Spread: Magic (-2.5)
- +$8.87at 0.530Spread: Kings (-1.5)
- +$3.60at 0.640Heat vs. Cavaliers
- +$1.08at 0.650Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 11:01 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $6.00 |
| 07-06 12:02 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 | BUY | 0.08 | $2.00 |
| 07-06 12:02 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.2 | $2.00 |
| 07-06 12:02 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.6799999806 | $7.00 |
| 06-23 08:28 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.6299999903 | $15.00 |
| 05-24 23:46 | Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 | BUY | 0.52 | $79.00 |
| 03-26 12:34 | Heat vs. Cavaliers | BUY | 0.64 | $6.40 |
| 03-09 08:10 | Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March? | BUY | 0.98 | $4.00 |
| 03-09 08:10 | Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999881 | $6.00 |
| 03-09 08:09 | Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 03-09 08:09 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.98 | $3.00 |
| 03-08 15:20 | Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | BUY | 0.9699999951 | $2.00 |
| 03-08 15:20 | Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 15? | BUY | 0.5399999676 | $4.00 |
| 02-24 07:45 | Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.00 |
| 02-04 13:46 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on February 4? | BUY | 0.997 | $5.00 |