0xEAfA8d800B185200D9e2b56595cF278a4898944A-1772023588332
0xeafa8d800b185200d9e2b56595cf278a4898944a
- Realised P&L
- $-18.84
- Volume
- $9.0k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $35.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.198 | 0.130 | $26.27 | −$13.73 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.138 | 0.033 | $4.73 | −$15.27 |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.022 | $4.71 | −$4.29 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? · Yes | 0.244 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$146.75 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? · Yes | 0.097 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$83.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$147.75at 0.433Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
- +$144.41at 0.088Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$79.45at 0.047Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
- +$33.08at 0.540Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
- +$31.45at 0.690Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-27 13:47 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? | BUY | 0.1 | $12.00 |
| 05-27 13:46 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.47 | $13.43 |
| 05-24 15:36 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? | BUY | 0.2445770611 | $146.75 |
| 05-24 15:34 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.08 | $40.00 |
| 05-24 15:33 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.08 | $13.00 |
| 05-19 19:40 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.1099999913 | $10.00 |
| 04-28 10:32 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? | SELL | 0.995 | $72.35 |
| 04-21 10:10 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? | BUY | 0.4699999929 | $19.15 |
| 04-21 10:10 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.038 | $18.56 |
| 04-20 18:36 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0429999987 | $30.00 |
| 04-16 17:02 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? | BUY | 0.5399999943 | $38.53 |
| 04-14 14:18 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | SELL | 0.2462199674 | $37.73 |
| 04-14 14:02 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | BUY | 0.2609999968 | $40.00 |
| 04-09 19:27 | Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999836 | $10.00 |
| 04-09 19:26 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.2761247306 | $80.00 |