MichaelDavis4993
0xeaf1f1805537078c833c2acba571b1dd765668ca
- Realised P&L
- $-1.8k
- Volume
- $97.6k
- Markets traded
- 102
- Open portfolio
- $255.24
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded102
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? · Yes | 0.808 | 0.367 | $247.33 | −$296.46 |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.033 | $4.88 | −$38.63 |
| Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.190 | $3.04 | −$1.76 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$493.05at 0.160Will Ethena dip to $0.04 by December 31, 2026?
- +$426.29at 0.358Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce
- +$257.04at 0.320Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 1.5
- +$231.42at 0.350Will T1 qualify to MSI 2026?
- +$187.11at 0.120Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 0% and 5.00%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-23 10:54 | Spread: Millonarios FC (-1.5) | BUY | 0.73 | $235.06 |
| 04-12 09:50 | Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in April? | SELL | 0.09 | $2.70 |
| 04-12 00:48 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $133.76 |
| 04-11 04:13 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $135.28 |
| 03-31 03:45 | Will Starmer say "National Security" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | SELL | 0.62 | $248.62 |
| 03-31 02:04 | Will AD Pasto win on 2026-04-11? | SELL | 0.37 | $240.87 |
| 03-31 02:02 | Will AD Pasto win on 2026-04-11? | SELL | 0.37 | $299.70 |
| 03-31 02:01 | Will AD Pasto win on 2026-04-11? | SELL | 0.37 | $358.16 |
| 03-31 01:59 | Will AD Pasto win on 2026-04-11? | SELL | 0.37 | $184.63 |
| 03-30 01:43 | Will AD Pasto win on 2026-04-11? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.1k |
| 03-30 00:34 | Will Starmer say "National Security" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | BUY | 0.79 | $316.79 |
| 03-26 08:10 | Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30? | SELL | 0.76 | $12.16 |
| 03-26 08:09 | Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30? | SELL | 0.76 | $110.20 |
| 03-26 07:26 | Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | SELL | 0.37 | $65.86 |
| 03-26 03:45 | Will Trump say "EPA" or "Protection Agency" during National Agriculture Day events? | SELL | 0.35 | $215.60 |