australianHumpback
0xead86ca24c6c478ed694cbb499a85752375e5316
- Realised P&L
- $-92.62
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $6.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Veracruz Congress election? · No | 0.460 | 0.370 | $6.52 | −$1.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.17at 0.390Suns vs. Trail Blazers
- +$9.16at 0.053Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
- +$8.60at 0.240Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- +$4.47at 0.530Hawks vs. Suns
- +$3.32at 0.520Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 13:30 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-10 House election by 35%-40%? | SELL | 0.252 | $4.85 |
| 10-10 18:27 | US strike on Colombia by December 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $5.80 |
| 10-09 10:40 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Hampshire be between 700,000 and 750,000? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.60 |
| 10-02 16:33 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 3%-6%? | SELL | 0.36 | $7.56 |
| 09-30 11:42 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 SC-01 House election by 3%-6%? | SELL | 0.11 | $2.77 |
| 09-29 15:11 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-09 House election by 20%-25%? | SELL | 0.3 | $6.92 |
| 09-26 05:51 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-09 House election by 20%-25%? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.80 |
| 09-25 05:34 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-05 House election by 15%-20%? | SELL | 0.26 | $3.66 |
| 09-22 22:11 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-20 House election by 35%-40%? | SELL | 0.16 | $1.53 |
| 09-19 09:25 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 HI-01 House election by 45%-50%? | SELL | 0.3 | $6.30 |
| 09-16 13:44 | Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.44 | $8.34 |
| 09-15 18:45 | Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $8.93 |
| 09-14 20:37 | Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? | SELL | 0.6 | $13.91 |
| 09-08 19:16 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-13 House election by 25%-30%? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.20 |
| 09-05 08:16 | Will Janet Gatehouse win the next Sorell mayoral election? | SELL | 0.4 | $2.06 |