OllonPiercing
0xea808b7a8493e1de76142191feeb29533772516c
- Realised P&L
- $-487.32
- Volume
- $51.9k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$111.81at 0.253Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
- +$80.74at 0.521Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
- +$77.56at 0.255Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
- +$59.64at 0.300Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?
- +$54.10at 0.174Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 09:55 | Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.82 |
| 10-15 09:54 | Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.40 |
| 10-15 09:50 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.2075388982 | $20.00 |
| 10-03 21:25 | Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.0264446621 | $30.00 |
| 10-03 21:11 | Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of Sweden? | BUY | 0.019 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 21:10 | Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + V? | BUY | 0.0279650399 | $5.00 |
| 10-02 09:11 | Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.01385 | $1.39 |
| 10-01 09:09 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | SELL | 0.17 | $8.50 |
| 09-28 09:45 | Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.29 | $14.50 |
| 09-27 20:57 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.115 | $10.35 |
| 09-27 20:34 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.1598827118 | $29.00 |
| 09-27 19:36 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.1579999981 | $2.00 |
| 09-27 19:19 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.1579999981 | $10.00 |
| 09-27 09:02 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.1549999995 | $40.00 |
| 09-27 09:01 | Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + C? | SELL | 0.1164964224 | $42.17 |