Shiraikuroko
0xea52eb4e3392d6c788de2024d4c7918dc1bcea25
- Realised P&L
- $-724.98
- Volume
- $64.6k
- Markets traded
- 193
- Open portfolio
- $179.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded193
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? · Yes | 0.652 | 0.650 | $179.46 | −$0.54 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election · Yes | 0.713 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$400.13 |
| Spread: Belgium (-1.5) · United States | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on September 2? · Yes | 0.796 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? · No | 0.248 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$55.00 |
| Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month? · No | 0.917 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.00 |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? · Yes | 0.804 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$450.00 |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$375.95at 0.500Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass?
- +$251.83at 0.211Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?
- +$224.13at 0.571Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?
- +$108.04at 0.802Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$70.60at 0.850Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 03:34 | Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.6519623725 | $180.00 |
| 09-26 15:28 | Will Bitget resume withdrawals by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.977 | $280.00 |
| 09-23 08:30 | Ren Zhengfei public appearance by October 31? | BUY | 0.8720109804 | $100.00 |
| 09-21 05:43 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | BUY | 0.9500074718 | $100.00 |
| 09-19 09:51 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | BUY | 0.9141441038 | $300.00 |
| 09-19 09:04 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | BUY | 0.9059999995 | $100.00 |
| 09-19 03:19 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | SELL | 0.9264776076 | $386.03 |
| 09-18 06:10 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | BUY | 0.96 | $400.00 |
| 09-18 03:46 | Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-09-20? | BUY | 0.92 | $50.00 |
| 09-16 15:38 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.11 | $4.87 |
| 09-16 07:57 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.12 | $3.54 |
| 09-16 07:31 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.9884118753 | $152.48 |
| 09-16 03:28 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1199999976 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 16:10 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1399999979 | $8.00 |
| 09-15 13:09 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.87 | $22.02 |