sh777
0xea3a464ab0888f178f3f4127463a26246f4ff78e
- Realised P&L
- $1.3k
- Volume
- $56.8k
- Markets traded
- 348
- Open portfolio
- $1.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded348
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.240 | 0.925 | $370.00 | +$274.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.669 | 0.765 | $136.26 | +$17.14 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 5? · Yes | 0.955 | 0.989 | $98.90 | +$3.40 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $89,000 on October 5? · No | 0.961 | 0.968 | $96.75 | +$0.65 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October? · No | 0.880 | 0.885 | $88.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.165 | $82.50 | −$57.50 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October? · No | 0.780 | 0.815 | $81.50 | +$3.50 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.790 | $37.82 | +$4.79 |
| China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev · Daniil Medvedev | 0.510 | 0.115 | $8.05 | −$27.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.600Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$171.00at 0.145Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$134.00at 0.330Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$98.00at 0.510Bitcoin Up or Down on July 30?
- +$77.00at 0.230Will NASA estimate a 3% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 06:13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 5? | BUY | 0.955 | $95.50 |
| 10-05 06:12 | Will Bitcoin reach $89,000 on October 5? | BUY | 0.961 | $96.10 |
| 10-03 14:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 4? | BUY | 0.989 | $112.75 |
| 09-28 02:44 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? | BUY | 0.808 | $80.80 |
| 09-27 04:01 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $53.12 |
| 09-18 16:52 | Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in September? | SELL | 0.9711 | $97.11 |
| 09-13 14:13 | Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.977 | $19.54 |
| 09-05 11:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET | BUY | 0.4399999648 | $5.00 |
| 09-05 11:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET | BUY | 0.4399999648 | $5.00 |
| 08-27 11:40 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August? | BUY | 0.78 | $23.40 |
| 08-27 11:40 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August? | BUY | 0.93 | $93.00 |
| 08-27 11:39 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August? | SELL | 0.4123094619 | $20.61 |
| 08-17 12:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? | BUY | 0.93 | $111.60 |
| 08-17 12:14 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? | SELL | 0.963 | $115.56 |
| 08-10 16:03 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August? | BUY | 0.84 | $92.40 |