0x7Af0c6129fC06eEbECb709eb7A05436742e8EF23-1782746629039
0xea342baf63b6812afc4790aa37328955a4595630
- Realised P&L
- $-601.22
- Volume
- $15.8k
- Markets traded
- 200
- Open portfolio
- $39.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded200
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.560 | $28.00 | +$7.50 |
| Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.345 | $6.90 | −$1.50 |
| Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $4B by December 31? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.620 | $4.66 | +$2.48 |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.003 | $0.06 | −$6.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$130.48at 0.196Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?
- +$84.46at 0.806Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?
- +$69.81at 0.150Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
- +$59.81at 0.370Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
- +$41.46at 0.188Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 08:44 | Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.176155 | $3.52 |
| 08-06 06:27 | Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30? | SELL | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 08-06 06:13 | Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in July? | SELL | 0.3 | $6.00 |
| 08-06 03:10 | Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $4.80 |
| 08-06 01:28 | Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30? | SELL | 0.131 | $2.62 |
| 08-06 01:10 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | SELL | 0.31 | $6.20 |
| 08-05 23:12 | Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31? | SELL | 0.19 | $3.80 |
| 08-05 22:53 | Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $8.60 |
| 08-05 21:47 | Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30? | SELL | 0.31 | $6.20 |
| 08-05 21:42 | Will DeepSeek be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.60 |
| 08-05 19:59 | Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30? | SELL | 0.57 | $11.40 |
| 08-05 10:46 | Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $3.40 |
| 08-04 18:08 | Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 08-04 12:32 | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.68 | $13.60 |
| 08-04 11:00 | Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.175 | $3.50 |