Ouch
0xe9fa6052538ea239ce01ae31fcb3b9b6c3ab0371
- Realised P&L
- $44.02
- Volume
- $228.0k
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $176.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.405 | $70.88 | −$11.37 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.345 | $60.36 | +$32.36 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.120 | $21.00 | −$7.06 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.072 | $12.60 | −$4.90 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.068 | $11.81 | +$1.31 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition · No | 0.425 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$73.88 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$93.15at 0.190Will a dozen eggs be between $4.50-4.75 in May?
- +$74.75at 0.350Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3?
- +$74.53at 0.570Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31?
- +$69.03at 0.378Will Nicușor Dan win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?
- +$58.14at 0.490Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-05 09:06 | Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? | BUY | 0.47 | $82.25 |
| 01-05 09:06 | Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? | BUY | 0.1 | $17.50 |
| 01-05 09:05 | Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? | BUY | 0.06 | $10.50 |
| 01-05 09:05 | Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | BUY | 0.16 | $28.00 |
| 01-05 09:05 | Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison? | BUY | 0.1603274286 | $28.06 |
| 10-18 09:43 | Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition | BUY | 0.42 | $3.15 |
| 10-18 09:42 | Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? | BUY | 0.58 | $4.35 |
| 10-18 09:30 | Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition | BUY | 0.43 | $12.00 |
| 10-18 09:30 | Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? | BUY | 0.57 | $15.85 |
| 10-18 09:21 | Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition | BUY | 0.4292018519 | $46.35 |
| 10-18 09:20 | Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? | BUY | 0.57 | $61.56 |
| 10-18 09:17 | Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? | BUY | 0.57 | $17.21 |
| 10-18 09:16 | Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition | BUY | 0.41 | $12.38 |
| 10-02 12:59 | MLB Playoffs: Will the Detroit Tigers beat the Cleveland Guardians 2-1? | BUY | 0.48 | $48.00 |
| 08-09 17:20 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | BUY | 0.07 | $8.40 |