0xe9bd8defd5ed467516422defa293bcabeb4ad5bb
- Realised P&L
- $-4.03
- Volume
- $99.35
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $4.91
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)8.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will François Ruffin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · No | 0.984 | 0.978 | $1.49 | −$0.01 |
| Will Matt Orlando win the 2026 Chandler mayoral election? · Yes | 0.987 | 0.994 | $1.28 | +$0.01 |
| Will Gérald Darmanin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · No | 0.980 | 0.986 | $1.13 | +$0.01 |
| Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? · No | 0.950 | 0.955 | $1.02 | +$0.01 |
| Will Donald Trump visit South Dakota in 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.18 |
| Will Donald Trump visit North Dakota in 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.47 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.03at 0.968Will Marine Tondelier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- +$-0.00at 0.987Will Carole Delga advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- +$-0.01at 0.973Will Marat Kambolov win the 2026 South Ossetia presidential elections?
- +$-0.01at 0.988Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
- +$-0.01at 0.962Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 13:31 | Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? | SELL | 0.95 | $1.02 |
| 08-09 01:08 | Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? | BUY | 0.9599996272 | $1.03 |
| 08-04 19:48 | Will Matt Orlando win the 2026 Chandler mayoral election? | BUY | 0.9869999969 | $1.27 |
| 08-04 19:47 | Will Marat Kambolov win the 2026 South Ossetia presidential elections? | SELL | 0.965 | $1.07 |
| 08-04 19:47 | Will Marat Kambolov win the 2026 South Ossetia presidential elections? | BUY | 0.971999172 | $1.08 |
| 07-20 23:26 | Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9499998119 | $1.01 |
| 07-16 01:04 | Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $0.99 |
| 07-16 01:04 | Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9699991164 | $1.01 |
| 07-11 04:17 | Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? | SELL | 0.023 | $0.44 |
| 07-11 04:17 | Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.73 |
| 07-11 04:17 | Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? | BUY | 0.0542852817 | $1.03 |
| 07-11 04:17 | Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? | BUY | 0.0699999389 | $1.02 |
| 07-07 17:29 | Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.5 | $0.59 |
| 07-07 17:09 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.886 | $0.98 |
| 07-07 11:55 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.9589995555 | $1.07 |