Ardyawanhalley
0xe9acd6b02f0b4567cbc0ecffac19b9bc1e8e8302
- Realised P&L
- $0.70
- Volume
- $576.90
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $5.15
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.045 | $3.46 | −$2.54 |
| Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.075 | $1.69 | −$5.31 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.329 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.187 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Argentina? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.162 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Exact Score: France 0 - 3 England? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Exact Score: France 1 - 3 England? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.00at 0.280Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?
- +$6.10at 0.146Exact Score: Any Other Score?
- +$-0.91at 0.011Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-16 17:13 | Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.3099999717 | $7.00 |
| 08-16 17:12 | Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $5.00 |
| 07-18 06:19 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.09 |
| 07-16 10:42 | Exact Score: Any Other Score? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 07-16 10:42 | Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina? | BUY | 0.0219999787 | $1.00 |
| 07-16 10:41 | Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Argentina? | BUY | 0.0140000003 | $1.00 |
| 07-16 10:30 | Exact Score: Any Other Score? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 07-16 10:29 | Exact Score: France 0 - 3 England? | BUY | 0.0140000003 | $1.00 |
| 07-16 10:29 | Exact Score: France 1 - 3 England? | BUY | 0.0299999712 | $1.00 |
| 07-11 08:01 | Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw? | BUY | 0.269999937 | $3.00 |
| 07-11 08:01 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.1624999768 | $5.00 |
| 07-07 08:49 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.0109999892 | $1.00 |
| 07-07 08:48 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1869998684 | $1.00 |
| 07-06 23:52 | Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999363 | $1.00 |
| 07-06 23:50 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3289998526 | $1.00 |