xfm-6-6
0xe9ac8eb4ef1d0e95e490694c0436603ed6cb146d
- Realised P&L
- $14.47
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $104.60
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration37.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.530 | $104.60 | +$5.92 |
| Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027? · No | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$130.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$51.00at 0.660Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?
- +$48.00at 0.700Will Apple (AAPL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?
- +$18.51at 0.740Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
- +$16.60at 0.690Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
- +$1.70at 0.700Will Trump meet with Kevin Warsh in February 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-23 02:52 | Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? | BUY | 0.5 | $98.68 |
| 05-22 03:27 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? | SELL | 0.81 | $234.90 |
| 04-12 05:02 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $214.60 |
| 04-12 04:59 | Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | SELL | 0.76 | $212.80 |
| 03-20 07:36 | Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | BUY | 0.69 | $193.20 |
| 03-20 07:34 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? | SELL | 0.997 | $149.55 |
| 03-04 06:53 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? | BUY | 0.987 | $148.05 |
| 02-19 08:08 | Will Apple (AAPL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16? | BUY | 0.7 | $112.00 |
| 02-19 08:05 | Will Trump meet with Kevin Warsh in February 2026? | SELL | 0.71 | $120.70 |
| 02-15 15:12 | Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | SELL | 0.66 | $99.00 |
| 02-04 12:12 | Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.998 | $53.89 |
| 02-01 06:29 | Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.999 | $53.95 |