0xe99c4966712b18b44cf77e308229667b7a03e05b
0xe99c4966712b18b44cf77e308229667b7a03e05b
- Realised P&L
- $9.35
- Volume
- $172.32
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $5.43
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.440 | 0.615 | $2.80 | +$0.80 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.645 | $1.63 | −$0.37 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.090 | $0.78 | −$1.22 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $64 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.085 | $0.22 | −$1.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$4.01at 0.339Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$3.07at 0.402Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$2.59at 0.442Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$2.29at 0.472Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 07:56 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $367.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.439999956 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 11:50 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $64 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 23:43 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 15:24 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 07:08 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 22:52 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999782 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 14:02 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999163 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 00:57 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999782 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 16:33 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 07:08 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999807 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 22:59 | Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.3299999489 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 22:21 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 14:16 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | BUY | 0.729999446 | $1.12 |
| 09-02 07:41 | Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 09:06 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |