3003ler
0xe99a9a4bfc7b8a0f609db0a258719269b6132ad2
- Realised P&L
- $-194.96
- Volume
- $24.4k
- Markets traded
- 112
- Open portfolio
- $110.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded112
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? · No | 0.870 | 0.965 | $28.93 | +$2.83 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.935 | $26.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · No | 0.860 | 0.875 | $20.35 | +$0.35 |
| Will Lighter reach $12 before 2027? · No | 0.898 | 0.894 | $15.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.890 | 0.894 | $10.05 | +$0.05 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.870 | 0.820 | $9.43 | −$0.57 |
| Will Ethereum hit $6,000.00 by March 31? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.88 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET · Down | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? · Yes | 0.423 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.50at 0.500Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$47.86at 0.741Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
- +$23.48at 0.460Will Ethereum reach $3,250 in November?
- +$22.51at 0.390Wuning 2: Fajing Sun vs Li Tu
- +$22.50at 0.545US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 12:53 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.929999975 | $26.00 |
| 09-14 12:52 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.8599999983 | $20.00 |
| 09-14 12:52 | Will Lighter reach $12 before 2027? | BUY | 0.8979999969 | $16.00 |
| 09-14 12:51 | Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8699999904 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 12:51 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.8899999252 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 12:14 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.995 | $20.89 |
| 06-26 02:03 | GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999953 | $10.00 |
| 06-26 02:01 | Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.961 | $18.26 |
| 06-26 01:57 | GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.021055 | $4.21 |
| 06-26 01:53 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | SELL | 0.055 | $5.50 |
| 06-26 00:21 | GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.053 | $10.60 |
| 06-26 00:16 | GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.049 | $5.39 |
| 06-25 23:46 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.138 | $27.60 |
| 06-25 23:45 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | BUY | 0.06 | $6.00 |
| 06-25 23:43 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.139 | $27.80 |