AlcazarViala
0xe98dd5c8e21e6e113f63fa9d6f80dc1cda5c9275
- Realised P&L
- $-83.77
- Volume
- $12.2k
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $152.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.131 | 0.135 | $73.39 | +$2.39 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.760 | 0.885 | $46.58 | +$6.58 |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.021 | $26.79 | −$13.20 |
| Will Natacha Polony win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $5.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.001 | $0.14 | −$1.86 |
| Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.001 | $0.11 | −$1.89 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$88.16at 0.601Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$24.39at 0.690US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$21.35at 0.587Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$20.55at 0.600US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
- +$20.45at 0.427Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 10:39 | Will Natacha Polony win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 10-22 07:41 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0220199366 | $5.00 |
| 10-22 07:40 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1099999999 | $10.00 |
| 08-23 15:45 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.7599999901 | $40.00 |
| 08-23 15:44 | Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? | SELL | 0.939 | $25.13 |
| 08-23 15:43 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1299999967 | $30.00 |
| 08-10 09:18 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1399999962 | $30.00 |
| 08-03 13:46 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0359356196 | $20.00 |
| 07-21 09:51 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $1.00 |
| 07-21 09:51 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0289999971 | $10.00 |
| 07-21 09:50 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.5809999837 | $10.00 |
| 07-19 14:30 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5919999984 | $50.00 |
| 07-19 14:29 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.73 | $59.19 |
| 07-19 14:22 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.592 | $39.59 |
| 07-19 14:22 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.12 | $41.00 |