Optum
0xe95f9749c4b39a34a4ac5a0a850d2c910f753d98
- Realised P&L
- $-4.76
- Volume
- $43.57
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $4.54
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.865 | $4.54 | +$0.55 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET · Down | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.05at 0.989Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 5, 2026?
- +$0.02at 0.997Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 8, 2026?
- +$0.01at 0.997Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9?
- +$-0.02at 0.975Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 16:40 | Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? | BUY | 0.76 | $3.99 |
| 10-09 10:10 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9? | BUY | 0.997 | $5.22 |
| 10-08 19:00 | Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $5.22 |
| 10-07 07:13 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.973 | $5.35 |
| 10-06 22:34 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.974 | $5.36 |
| 10-05 16:55 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.989 | $5.03 |
| 06-18 12:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET | BUY | 0.7 | $4.72 |