acepk18
0xe955ca5cf1f3dc63a4b1173f73ef01d8d28f8faa
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $11.5k
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $42.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? · Yes | 0.695 | 0.983 | $42.40 | +$12.40 |
| Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? · Yes | 0.375 | 0.007 | $0.37 | −$19.63 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.60 |
| Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.90 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$80.64at 0.113Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?
- +$46.25at 0.306Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
- +$39.67at 0.305Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$39.44at 0.606Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance
- +$33.71at 0.477England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 21:07 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.0674999797 | $3.00 |
| 07-19 12:37 | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.3174999667 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 05:52 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.069 | $6.90 |
| 07-19 05:50 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.409 | $163.60 |
| 07-16 04:38 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.416 | $97.22 |
| 07-16 04:35 | Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? | SELL | 0.96 | $59.25 |
| 07-16 04:33 | Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.40 |
| 07-16 04:32 | Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.901 | $60.39 |
| 07-15 04:05 | England vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.699999993 | $20.00 |
| 07-15 04:04 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4649999919 | $30.00 |
| 07-11 14:20 | Argentina vs. Switzerland: Argentina O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.8199999995 | $30.00 |
| 07-11 14:20 | Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.75 | $50.00 |
| 07-09 09:54 | France vs. Morocco: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | BUY | 0.1499999887 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 09:54 | Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw? | BUY | 0.25 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 09:54 | France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.2299999869 | $10.00 |