Motleyty
0xe94be7737c0fc45057a04edcac0b5d2cebe23300
- Realised P&L
- $-145.75
- Volume
- $36.2k
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $184.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Broncos (-3.5) · Broncos | 0.330 | 0.255 | $184.11 | −$54.15 |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-17? · No | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.72 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.64 |
| Cowboys vs. Eagles · Eagles | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$87.45 |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-24? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$120.84 |
| Spread: Portugal (-1.5) · Portugal | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.74 |
| Will Norway vs. England end in a draw? · No | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$490.53at 0.500Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$463.70at 0.500Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
- +$414.27at 0.500Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
- +$403.38at 0.500Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
- +$315.52at 0.500Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 06:06 | Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.998 | $391.61 |
| 10-28 06:05 | Spread: Broncos (-3.5) | BUY | 0.33 | $238.26 |
| 10-28 06:05 | Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.999 | $177.00 |
| 10-28 06:03 | Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.999 | $215.00 |
| 10-26 08:50 | Will PSV Eindhoven win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SELL | 0.998 | $798.19 |
| 10-26 08:50 | Will PSV Eindhoven win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.999 | $274.00 |
| 10-26 08:50 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in October? | SELL | 0.9950773706 | $200.12 |
| 10-26 08:49 | Will PSV Eindhoven win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.999 | $525.00 |
| 10-26 08:49 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in October? | SELL | 0.996 | $600.89 |
| 10-26 08:49 | Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.81 |
| 10-26 08:49 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in October? | BUY | 0.9969999997 | $802.00 |
| 10-26 08:48 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in October? | SELL | 0.998 | $800.20 |
| 10-26 08:48 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 27? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.00 |
| 10-26 08:48 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $275.00 |
| 10-26 08:48 | Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $202.09 |