0xe948cf45db18648be485b3e187a1c993422321f6
0xe948cf45db18648be485b3e187a1c993422321f6
- Realised P&L
- $-30.85
- Volume
- $811.16
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $43.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.967 | 0.982 | $20.31 | +$0.31 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No | 0.740 | 0.962 | $14.42 | +$3.32 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.283 | 0.070 | $2.47 | −$7.53 |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.263 | 0.085 | $1.94 | −$4.06 |
| Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.041 | $1.12 | −$3.88 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.085 | $0.98 | −$2.01 |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.080 | $0.94 | −$1.05 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.085 | $0.85 | −$4.15 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.503 | 0.085 | $0.85 | −$4.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.71at 0.869Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$5.11at 0.540Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?
- +$2.07at 0.750Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?
- +$1.21at 0.965US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?
- +$1.17at 0.700Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 19:42 | Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.6899999652 | $2.18 |
| 06-12 19:42 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.26 |
| 06-12 19:41 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | SELL | 0.31 | $0.98 |
| 06-12 19:07 | Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | BUY | 0.5299999054 | $1.68 |
| 06-11 20:30 | Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | BUY | 0.94 | $1.61 |
| 04-08 20:59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.24 | $3.00 |
| 04-05 20:50 | Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.26 | $2.99 |
| 04-05 20:47 | Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999342 | $1.99 |
| 03-31 06:33 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $11.10 |
| 03-30 21:20 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.04 |
| 03-26 22:30 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | BUY | 0.769999538 | $1.25 |
| 03-25 21:21 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | SELL | 0.0438877841 | $1.24 |
| 03-22 20:55 | Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.8399999704 | $3.41 |
| 03-22 20:54 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.3 | $3.40 |
| 03-19 04:50 | Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be at least 20,000 by March 20? | BUY | 0.6199999653 | $5.01 |