Oradna2
0xe9257cfd566243f7e9259c465beb25848b93afd9
- Realised P&L
- $-47.61
- Volume
- $848.83
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $11.79
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.024 | $11.79 | −$3.21 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? · No | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.08 |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? · No | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? · No | 0.218 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.06 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.92at 0.640Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
- +$1.40at 0.500Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
- +$-1.67at 0.180Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 20:06 | Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $6.95 |
| 01-13 02:32 | Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $5.00 |
| 01-13 02:28 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 01-13 02:27 | Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | BUY | 0.1799999928 | $20.00 |
| 01-06 22:26 | Will Venezuela become 51st state? | BUY | 0.029910645 | $15.00 |
| 12-19 20:37 | Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | BUY | 0.2699998542 | $1.00 |
| 12-19 19:20 | Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | SELL | 0.85 | $3.40 |
| 12-19 19:19 | Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | BUY | 0.149999976 | $5.00 |
| 12-18 02:35 | Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? | BUY | 0.0899999846 | $5.08 |
| 12-18 02:27 | Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025? | SELL | 0.13 | $4.33 |
| 12-16 19:02 | Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025? | BUY | 0.179999928 | $2.00 |
| 12-16 19:01 | Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025? | BUY | 0.1799999649 | $4.00 |
| 12-16 18:57 | Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | BUY | 0.3899998908 | $2.00 |
| 12-16 18:54 | US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |