CauchyBraids
0xe8d3099d9cf42b421f13937d46194b1476b92306
- Realised P&L
- $1.7k
- Volume
- $219.2k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $4.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.526 | 0.218 | $2.4k | −$3.3k |
| Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? · Yes | 0.707 | 0.240 | $2.3k | −$4.4k |
| Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? · Yes | 0.358 | 0.069 | $106.80 | −$450.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.837Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.784Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?
- +$972.71at 0.727Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
- +$957.03at 0.914Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$700.80at 0.650Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 03:18 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | SELL | 0.8208002724 | $2.3k |
| 10-29 15:57 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | BUY | 0.9585306532 | $2.4k |
| 10-29 15:48 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | BUY | 0.955 | $245.50 |
| 10-29 15:47 | Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4153337986 | $68.43 |
| 10-29 15:47 | Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2711987043 | $64.88 |
| 10-29 15:47 | Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? | BUY | 0.540341548 | $358.49 |
| 10-29 15:47 | Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? | BUY | 0.51 | $6.08 |
| 10-29 15:46 | Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $56.35 |
| 10-29 15:46 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.966 | $3.3k |
| 10-28 18:21 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $3.3k |
| 10-28 18:20 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.3k |
| 10-28 02:32 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.961 | $842.80 |
| 10-28 02:31 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.65 | $842.69 |
| 10-28 02:30 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.961 | $2.3k |
| 10-28 02:28 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.66 | $13.20 |