0xe8Ce16adc3fBe22f11B0b69f485b526BB44D6DA0-1735514007934
0xe8ce16adc3fbe22f11b0b69f485b526bb44d6da0
- Realised P&L
- $-22.7k
- Volume
- $281.3k
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $4.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)29.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.434 | 0.335 | $4.7k | −$1.4k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$135.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September? · Yes | 0.361 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$361.34 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 17-23? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.10 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Solana dip to $70 in April? · Yes | 0.437 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 August 31-September 6? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.00 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET · Down | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$580.14at 0.700Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$444.31at 0.768Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$250.97at 0.490US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?
- +$238.74at 0.549Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?
- +$208.87at 0.630Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 10:55 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $40.19 |
| 10-01 12:01 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $78.42 |
| 09-14 14:45 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $14.75 |
| 09-14 14:44 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September? | BUY | 0.29 | $1.91 |
| 09-14 12:29 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September? | BUY | 0.37 | $129.50 |
| 09-14 12:28 | Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in September? | SELL | 0.1 | $41.00 |
| 09-14 12:28 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September? | SELL | 0.06 | $60.00 |
| 09-14 11:40 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $100.80 |
| 09-14 11:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September? | BUY | 0.36 | $123.70 |
| 09-14 11:36 | Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in September? | SELL | 0.11 | $50.16 |
| 09-02 19:54 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $19.56 |
| 09-02 19:51 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September? | BUY | 0.13 | $103.12 |
| 09-02 19:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in September? | BUY | 0.19 | $190.00 |
| 09-02 19:16 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.024 | $9.54 |
| 08-28 12:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $310.00 |