WilliamCastro2242
0xe8bbc538044fa0fdbc80ea17f2d8099358c5e885
- Realised P&L
- $-99.76
- Volume
- $217.6k
- Markets traded
- 223
- Open portfolio
- $141.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded223
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$159.79at 0.530Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)
- +$125.78at 0.745Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?
- +$112.00at 0.540Will Pete Carroll be fired by February 28?
- +$110.90at 0.420Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75%?
- +$102.22at 0.160Ex-FaZe members form new organization by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-08 19:28 | Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.15 | $1.05 |
| 01-11 19:40 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.55 | $303.60 |
| 01-11 05:31 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.56 | $309.12 |
| 01-11 04:23 | Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | SELL | 0.8501648352 | $309.46 |
| 01-11 00:18 | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | SELL | 0.72 | $51.84 |
| 01-10 20:57 | Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | SELL | 0.86 | $129.00 |
| 01-10 19:40 | Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025? | SELL | 0.21 | $13.23 |
| 01-10 18:21 | Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | BUY | 0.87 | $447.18 |
| 01-10 17:42 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025? | SELL | 0.351 | $149.53 |
| 01-10 17:41 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025? | SELL | 0.352 | $63.01 |
| 01-10 16:50 | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | BUY | 0.76 | $54.72 |
| 01-10 16:46 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025? | BUY | 0.381 | $230.50 |
| 01-10 15:31 | Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? | SELL | 0.181 | $74.93 |
| 01-10 15:23 | Stripe IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.7 | $164.50 |
| 01-10 07:14 | Stripe IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.69 | $162.15 |