asmile
0xe8a0bd271f6ec3779481ab05012f27aff4d74e39
- Realised P&L
- $1.4k
- Volume
- $340.4k
- Markets traded
- 2,812
- Open portfolio
- $2.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,812
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration4.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$222.65at 0.557Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on March 26?
- +$221.82at 0.387Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on March 27?
- +$196.28at 0.598Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on March 27?
- +$157.55at 0.003Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12?
- +$139.67at 0.734Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on March 29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 01:55 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 3? | SELL | 0.19 | $0.95 |
| 08-01 07:54 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 1? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.30 |
| 07-31 09:41 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 31? | SELL | 0.0043357353 | $0.13 |
| 07-31 05:47 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.15 |
| 07-29 06:19 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29? | SELL | 0.041 | $0.30 |
| 07-28 09:33 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 28? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.04 |
| 07-28 07:45 | Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2? | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 12:00 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 27? | SELL | 0.998 | $0.01 |
| 07-26 18:39 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 26? | SELL | 0.18 | $0.90 |
| 07-25 18:23 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on July 25? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.10 |
| 07-24 02:48 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 24? | SELL | 0.13 | $0.65 |
| 07-23 08:09 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 23? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.15 |
| 07-19 21:45 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 19? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.35 |
| 07-19 13:00 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 19? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 07-19 09:05 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 19? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.10 |