PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

asmile

0xe8a0bd271f6ec3779481ab05012f27aff4d74e39

Realised P&L
$1.3k
Volume
$356.1k
Markets traded
3,095
Open portfolio
$1.40

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded3,095
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration5.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration35.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.0010.001$0.50−$0.50
Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.0010.001$0.50−$0.50
Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.0010.001$0.40−$0.40
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 25? · No0.0250.000$0.00−$0.75
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET · Down0.5000.000$0.00−$2.50
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 26? · No0.0250.000$0.00−$0.75
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? · No0.0020.000$0.00−$0.88
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET · Down0.5000.000$0.00−$2.50
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 29? · No0.0550.000$0.00−$0.55
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 30? · No0.0250.000$0.00−$0.75
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET · Down0.5000.000$0.00−$2.50
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? · No0.0020.000$0.00−$0.41
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 27? · No0.0250.000$0.00−$0.66
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET · Up0.5000.000$0.00−$2.50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET · Down0.5000.000$0.00−$2.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-17 07:14Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 17?SELL0.034$0.17
08-16 21:50Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 16?SELL0.11$0.55
08-16 07:35Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 16?SELL0.04$0.20
08-13 14:50Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on August 13?SELL0.2368212824$1.74
08-10 08:19Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 10?SELL0.03$0.15
08-06 03:12Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 6?SELL0.21$1.05
08-03 01:55Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 3?SELL0.19$0.95
08-01 07:54Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 1?SELL0.06$0.30
07-31 09:41Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 31?SELL0.0043357353$0.13
07-31 05:47Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 31?SELL0.03$0.15
07-29 06:19Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?SELL0.041$0.30
07-28 09:33Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 28?SELL0.007$0.04
07-28 07:45Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?BUY0.9699999981$5.00
07-27 12:00Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 27?SELL0.998$0.01
07-26 18:39Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 26?SELL0.18$0.90