0xE88f3C454e601816d9478e2A8a34912c153010Ba-1765968134630
0xe88f3c454e601816d9478e2a8a34912c153010ba
- Realised P&L
- $-491.51
- Volume
- $6.7k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $122.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.215 | $62.50 | −$85.79 |
| Will the Republican Party win the FL-02 House seat? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.895 | $35.80 | +$1.40 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.309 | 0.021 | $24.08 | −$321.92 |
| Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? · Yes | 0.055 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.95 |
| Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.63 |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.70 |
| Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.24 |
| Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? · Yes | 0.609 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$52.35 |
| Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? · Yes | 0.367 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$128.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$106.11at 0.714Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
- +$84.46at 0.390Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?
- +$77.63at 0.530Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
- +$35.22at 0.314Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?
- +$25.06at 0.499Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 06:40 | Will the Republican Party win the FL-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.86 | $34.40 |
| 06-24 19:10 | Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.67 | $357.78 |
| 04-07 11:49 | Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy? | BUY | 0.221 | $0.44 |
| 03-03 16:41 | Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.7969425094 | $425.57 |
| 03-03 16:31 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Michigan State Spartans | BUY | 0.85 | $0.29 |
| 03-03 16:24 | Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.091 | $0.03 |
| 03-03 16:23 | Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.053 | $1.17 |
| 03-03 16:23 | Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.05594 | $1.01 |
| 03-03 16:21 | Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.093506776 | $17.11 |
| 03-03 16:21 | Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.1736161838 | $53.81 |
| 02-28 18:02 | Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.2644680499 | $63.99 |
| 02-28 16:27 | Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.0988769565 | $4.55 |
| 02-28 14:16 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.1 | $4.70 |
| 02-28 14:14 | Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? | BUY | 0.313895598 | $16.12 |
| 02-28 14:04 | Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? | BUY | 0.4988 | $24.94 |