fortunecookiebby
0xe88b238ffdd2598e4f1cf75813556727e663f597
- Realised P&L
- $106.21
- Volume
- $15.4k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $54.78
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · No | 0.210 | 0.190 | $31.67 | −$3.33 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.083 | 0.075 | $9.09 | −$0.91 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.245 | $8.45 | −$1.55 |
| Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.190 | $5.58 | −$4.42 |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score? · Yes | 0.087 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? · No | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? · No | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) · Paris Saint-Germain FC | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$283.18at 0.110US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
- +$72.34at 0.171Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?
- +$41.55at 0.144Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?
- +$19.67at 0.129US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?
- +$18.91at 0.841Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 18:50 | Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.3404669211 | $10.00 |
| 10-15 18:48 | Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0830903163 | $10.00 |
| 10-15 18:47 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.2099999996 | $35.00 |
| 07-22 12:01 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | BUY | 0.3099999946 | $30.00 |
| 07-22 12:00 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.2099999861 | $10.00 |
| 05-30 15:39 | Exact Score: Any Other Score? | BUY | 0.0869178837 | $10.00 |
| 05-30 15:38 | Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) | BUY | 0.1899999959 | $30.00 |
| 05-21 18:53 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.2899999846 | $10.00 |
| 04-21 20:20 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $9.99 |
| 04-21 18:59 | Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.3399999857 | $10.00 |
| 04-20 13:36 | Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.0835988047 | $6.43 |
| 04-20 11:26 | Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.15 | $7.05 |
| 04-19 18:38 | Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.2043119306 | $5.00 |
| 04-19 18:38 | Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.212819458 | $10.00 |
| 04-19 18:37 | Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.1904761905 | $10.00 |