Creamethod
0xe87f99db88da7a2e1b1b81cc71685a243b99f8e7
- Realised P&L
- $7.4k
- Volume
- $306.7k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $43.5k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.815 | $24.4k | +$16.9k |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? · Yes | 0.141 | 0.515 | $6.6k | +$4.8k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? · Yes | 0.734 | 0.735 | $6.4k | +$5.81 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.610 | $6.1k | +$200.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET · Down | 0.351 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$290.44 |
| LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.284 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$39.2k |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET · Up | 0.209 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.7kat 0.410Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in September?
- +$9.8kat 0.592LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- +$2.5kat 0.750Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in September?
- +$17.69at 0.915LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch?
- +$-595.23at 0.426Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 17:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET | SELL | 0.03 | $17.93 |
| 09-18 17:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET | BUY | 0.3507133604 | $500.00 |
| 09-18 17:14 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? | BUY | 0.88 | $88.00 |
| 09-18 17:14 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September? | BUY | 0.87 | $87.00 |
| 09-17 03:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET | BUY | 0.1911051996 | $100.00 |
| 09-17 03:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET | BUY | 0.2099999996 | $100.00 |
| 09-17 03:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET | BUY | 0.2307982284 | $100.00 |
| 09-17 03:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET | BUY | 0.2518603761 | $100.00 |
| 09-10 16:03 | LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.91 | $184.73 |
| 09-10 15:54 | LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.051 | $383.47 |
| 09-10 13:43 | LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.17 | $34.00 |
| 09-10 13:43 | LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.17 | $17.00 |
| 09-10 13:42 | LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.17 | $17.00 |
| 09-10 04:20 | LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.693434424 | $1000.00 |
| 09-10 03:17 | LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7147272445 | $1000.00 |