tanya01
0xe8626d62533d5600f4b83056d33b7391bb287f8e
- Realised P&L
- $-46.40
- Volume
- $13.5k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $45.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.875 | $29.56 | +$1.52 |
| Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.770 | $15.47 | +$0.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.29at 0.954Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
- +$1.07at 0.373Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
- +$0.48at 0.979Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?
- +$0.31at 0.960Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
- +$0.24at 0.989Will US gov sell Bitcoin before March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:59 | Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.9849999992 | $11.59 |
| 01-30 15:13 | Will Opendoor dip to $2.50 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.74 |
| 01-30 13:06 | Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.95 |
| 01-30 12:16 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9979999932 | $16.44 |
| 12-30 11:40 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999758 | $19.51 |
| 12-29 19:55 | Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.58 |
| 12-29 19:47 | Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.15 |
| 12-29 19:03 | Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $25.92 |
| 10-31 00:11 | Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $18.76 |
| 10-30 22:03 | Will Google have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.40 |
| 10-30 20:43 | Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $18.17 |
| 09-29 15:44 | Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? | BUY | 0.998 | $16.03 |
| 09-29 02:27 | Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.83 |
| 09-29 00:18 | Will XRP dip to $1.80 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.12 |
| 09-28 23:37 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9929999997 | $11.99 |