0xe85E478A5c91e202B78Aeb46709a63b909706BD0-1769419787854
0xe85e478a5c91e202b78aeb46709a63b909706bd0
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $32.7k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $430.55
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October? · No | 0.535 | 0.510 | $238.96 | −$11.69 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.037 | $187.50 | −$162.50 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.175 | 0.080 | $4.09 | −$4.91 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? · Yes | 0.072 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.15 |
| Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? · No | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.87 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? · Yes | 0.367 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$55.94at 0.426President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match?
- +$15.05at 0.285Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?
- +$13.90at 0.298Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
- +$3.98at 0.316Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$1.37at 0.172Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,975-$5,100 in January?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 07:23 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October? | BUY | 0.5349419013 | $250.65 |
| 09-13 09:21 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2099999996 | $100.00 |
| 07-20 13:54 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.07 | $350.00 |
| 07-20 06:20 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | SELL | 0.006 | $1.11 |
| 07-20 06:20 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.0601999576 | $706.93 |
| 06-18 19:15 | Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? | BUY | 0.5412853057 | $100.00 |
| 06-15 05:56 | Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? | BUY | 0.0770543818 | $10.00 |
| 06-15 05:55 | President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? | SELL | 0.1110774701 | $30.93 |
| 06-13 10:32 | Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? | BUY | 0.0619999886 | $5.00 |
| 06-13 05:34 | Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? | BUY | 0.073 | $4.15 |
| 06-13 05:33 | President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? | SELL | 0.998 | $97.65 |
| 06-08 19:47 | Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.0173268473 | $1.87 |
| 06-08 19:00 | President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? | BUY | 0.4199999894 | $19.00 |
| 06-08 18:53 | President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? | BUY | 0.1841977555 | $8.00 |
| 06-08 18:17 | President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? | BUY | 0.4180995414 | $22.00 |