yinian500W
0xe83d6af3103080e5c7765df47c4e045e9dc9238e
- Realised P&L
- $-243.81
- Volume
- $40.9k
- Markets traded
- 102
- Open portfolio
- $109.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded102
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.730 | $109.50 | −$27.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$137.72at 0.090Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?
- +$123.35at 0.082Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- +$99.91at 0.080Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?
- +$79.34at 0.070Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
- +$67.49at 0.050Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 00:20 | Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV? | BUY | 0.92 | $138.00 |
| 09-17 23:22 | Elon Musk signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30? | BUY | 0.95 | $142.50 |
| 09-17 23:07 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.9244072206 | $34.82 |
| 09-17 23:00 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.08626983 | $9.69 |
| 09-17 21:31 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026 | BUY | 0.96 | $144.00 |
| 09-17 20:31 | Will NetNet be the first to hit a $1B FDV? | BUY | 0.989 | $49.45 |
| 09-17 20:31 | Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV? | BUY | 0.092 | $4.60 |
| 09-17 20:25 | Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | BUY | 0.118817 | $11.88 |
| 09-17 19:59 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.972 | $145.80 |
| 09-17 19:57 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | SELL | 0.95 | $5.49 |
| 09-17 19:56 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | BUY | 0.964 | $5.57 |
| 09-17 19:56 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | SELL | 0.036 | $0.21 |
| 09-17 19:56 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | BUY | 0.9627 | $96.27 |
| 09-17 19:28 | Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV? | BUY | 0.1 | $15.00 |
| 09-17 19:24 | Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1016533333 | $15.25 |