markcuriouscryptos
0xe81c7801247dc1239f59ad65e5f069a7c5a59bec
- Realised P&L
- $-311.09
- Volume
- $10.0k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $32.11
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration88.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.477 | 0.310 | $26.02 | −$13.98 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.034 | $6.09 | −$13.91 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? · No | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.00 |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.463 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.88 |
| Starmer out in 2025? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$132.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$161.58at 0.374Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$21.85at 0.222Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 21:11 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.476627856 | $40.00 |
| 09-21 21:11 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0583623692 | $10.00 |
| 07-04 13:30 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999956 | $20.00 |
| 06-11 15:17 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | BUY | 0.0359999997 | $100.00 |
| 06-11 15:16 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? | BUY | 0.0356260573 | $100.00 |
| 06-10 07:09 | Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY | 0.15 | $75.00 |
| 06-10 07:07 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $79.54 |
| 05-30 10:46 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $70.37 |
| 05-19 12:54 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $100.00 |
| 05-17 10:09 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1262503592 | $20.00 |
| 05-17 09:53 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $369.72 |
| 05-12 08:44 | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4628675853 | $64.88 |
| 02-08 05:21 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999977 | $66.16 |
| 09-18 10:16 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.355405136 | $137.25 |
| 09-18 10:14 | Starmer out in 2025? | BUY | 0.1294323401 | $66.26 |