thalaivaa
0xe8110bc5b047a863dc014594aaf33d063e763fce
- Realised P&L
- $-1.8k
- Volume
- $132.3k
- Markets traded
- 171
- Open portfolio
- $502.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded171
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$231.54at 0.514Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election?
- +$157.60at 0.241Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?
- +$129.33at 0.612Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs
- +$91.23at 0.015Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$82.11at 0.708Starmer out by October 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 16:36 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? | BUY | 0.4847005672 | $50.00 |
| 09-17 16:31 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.529999998 | $100.00 |
| 09-16 15:14 | Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs | BUY | 0.5999999994 | $200.00 |
| 09-13 14:44 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs | BUY | 0.5999999988 | $100.00 |
| 08-19 12:40 | Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? | BUY | 0.2541410312 | $100.00 |
| 08-05 01:48 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6324110672 | $100.00 |
| 08-05 01:44 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $64.00 |
| 07-31 03:36 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.449999998 | $100.00 |
| 07-31 03:31 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.25 | $100.00 |
| 07-21 01:45 | Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.004 | $14.45 |
| 07-19 13:42 | Will no one dissent the July Fed decision? | BUY | 0.3699999926 | $30.00 |
| 07-19 13:40 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? | SELL | 0.82 | $143.85 |
| 07-18 11:21 | Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27? | SELL | 0.008 | $5.15 |
| 07-18 11:21 | Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? | SELL | 0.177 | $14.09 |
| 07-18 11:20 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | SELL | 0.0405159998 | $30.24 |