Mdnght43Fox
0xe8043a1a763cfab95e57af25b3309d1586fb2c4a
- Realised P&L
- $0.91
- Volume
- $142.6k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $3.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)79.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli forces enter Beirut by September 30? · No | 0.997 | 0.967 | $3.10 | −$0.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.18at 0.960Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?
- +$0.16at 0.959Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by December 31?
- +$0.16at 0.961Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
- +$0.11at 0.974Starmer out by March 31, 2026?
- +$0.09at 0.976Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 12:46 | Israeli forces enter Beirut by September 30? | BUY | 0.9969999997 | $3.20 |
| 08-06 13:00 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $4.22 |
| 07-27 00:56 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9929997809 | $2.28 |
| 06-05 06:50 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.974999799 | $3.76 |
| 06-05 06:50 | Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meeting? | SELL | 0.997 | $2.11 |
| 05-12 07:24 | Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meeting? | BUY | 0.98 | $2.08 |
| 04-05 04:06 | Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of April 6 above $285? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.16 |
| 03-16 11:21 | Starmer out by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9739999601 | $4.05 |
| 02-09 00:51 | Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.9609999985 | $3.89 |
| 01-30 06:47 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by January 31? | BUY | 0.9969999995 | $3.88 |
| 01-11 13:29 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on January 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.88 |
| 12-17 07:51 | Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by December 31? | BUY | 0.9589998966 | $3.72 |
| 12-10 15:29 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on December 13? | BUY | 0.9889999997 | $3.68 |
| 12-10 15:28 | Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–45.9% on December 31? | SELL | 0.969 | $3.68 |
| 11-21 11:05 | Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–45.9% on December 31? | BUY | 0.9880000011 | $3.76 |