kiara30
0xe7e9745db813e89de1a98ffbe2d7683aab1d36b1
- Realised P&L
- $-3.62
- Volume
- $12.1k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $39.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September? · No | 0.760 | 0.830 | $25.57 | +$2.16 |
| Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in September? · No | 0.650 | 0.615 | $13.99 | −$0.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.70at 0.600Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Wednesday?
- +$0.62at 0.969Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?
- +$0.52at 0.710Will Biden pardon Fauci?
- +$0.24at 0.985Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?
- +$0.19at 0.988Will the Progressive Conservatives win the most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:48 | Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.9849999996 | $12.63 |
| 01-30 14:23 | Will Ethena hit $0.29 in January? | BUY | 0.995 | $16.89 |
| 01-30 14:18 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9979999667 | $23.26 |
| 01-30 13:18 | Will Chainlink hit $21 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.31 |
| 12-30 11:11 | Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.99 |
| 12-29 22:20 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.9959999854 | $22.39 |
| 12-29 22:13 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.9959999925 | $18.48 |
| 12-29 21:08 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999865 | $21.57 |
| 10-30 19:57 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.54 |
| 10-30 19:19 | Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.83 |
| 09-29 11:24 | Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in September? | BUY | 0.9989999786 | $10.76 |
| 09-29 10:24 | TikTok removed from App Store by September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.30 |
| 09-29 04:11 | Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.82 |
| 09-29 01:30 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? | BUY | 0.969 | $19.51 |
| 09-28 22:28 | Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.14 |