Falcon4355
0xe7d654af1687db73dfa3ef28cfcc180731b4863e
- Realised P&L
- $0.98
- Volume
- $10.3k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $5.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 22? · No | 0.998 | 0.956 | $5.74 | −$0.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.97at 0.710Spurs vs. Raptors
- +$4.51at 0.749Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 13-19?
- +$3.11at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
- +$1.26at 0.68976ers vs. Hawks
- +$0.05at 0.995Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 07:03 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 22? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.00 |
| 07-31 06:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on July 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.00 |
| 06-15 03:25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.00 |
| 05-29 08:53 | Will Ethereum reach $2,700 May 25-31? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 05-29 08:46 | Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.991 | $12.59 |
| 05-29 02:59 | Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.992 | $12.60 |
| 04-23 05:47 | Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.21 |
| 04-16 03:54 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 April 13-19? | BUY | 0.998 | $8.97 |
| 03-18 02:42 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.9946009432 | $9.87 |
| 03-18 02:37 | Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.989 | $18.63 |
| 03-12 03:09 | Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.99 | $18.65 |
| 03-07 06:59 | 76ers vs. Hawks | BUY | 0.6890008844 | $2.80 |
| 03-03 01:41 | Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | SELL | 0.99 | $13.05 |
| 02-27 09:40 | Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.99 | $388.22 |
| 02-27 07:37 | Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.991 | $388.62 |