MyChildBitcoin
0xe78a7f6a2e665211b5eaa1a9d13cc2b1a3179673
- Realised P&L
- $-177.58
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 69
- Open portfolio
- $14.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded69
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump Jr. post about $LAPTOP by September 30? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.055 | $5.50 | −$11.50 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.040 | $3.95 | +$0.85 |
| Will Donald Trump post about $LAPTOP by September 30? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.033 | $3.30 | −$6.70 |
| Will Eric Trump post about $LAPTOP by September 30? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.068 | $1.35 | −$4.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.78at 0.180Will Kanye meet with Ansem by next Friday?
- +$18.60at 0.380Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$8.89at 0.360Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May?
- +$7.96at 0.323Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?
- +$7.00at 0.300Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 17:28 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.031 | $3.10 |
| 09-10 17:27 | Will Eric Trump post about $LAPTOP by September 30? | BUY | 0.27 | $5.40 |
| 01-10 16:35 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $8.70 |
| 01-10 16:35 | Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $5.40 |
| 01-10 16:35 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.38 | $11.40 |
| 01-10 16:34 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.19 | $5.70 |
| 01-10 16:34 | Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? | BUY | 0.14 | $8.40 |
| 01-10 16:33 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $10.40 |
| 05-30 06:09 | Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025? | BUY | 0.52 | $2.60 |
| 05-30 06:08 | Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? | BUY | 0.27 | $2.70 |
| 05-30 06:08 | Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.21 | $2.10 |
| 05-30 06:07 | Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.091 | $0.91 |
| 05-30 06:07 | Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.064 | $1.28 |
| 05-30 06:07 | Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.039 | $0.23 |
| 05-30 06:06 | Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.071 | $1.42 |